Water loss depends on how much water you started out with. A recipe made with "full water" has more to lose; one made with a water discount/stronger lye solution has less water to start with, therefore less to lose.
Yes, the bars DO shrink over time. I have bars that were fully cure for 6-8 weeks, then labeled with cigar-style bands. Some were set aside, and months later - the labels are loose because the bars have shrunk/dried more.
Is there a reason that your bars need to be an EXACT size?
I make and cut mine to the size I like, and don't worry about shrinkage - try to label or package after most of the shrinkage has occurred. If I was really interested, I could weigh and measure the bars before and after, and get an average amount of shrinkage both in weight and dimension. Of course, with continued curing, you'd have to repeat those measurements later.
Legally, soap is sold by weight, not dimension anyway. I think people are aware that handmade products can vary a bit.
Yes, it would be nice to find away around the testing and numerous practice batches. Good luck with that

If you really really really need your finished, cured bars to be a precise size, then testing is your only option.
sorry - I am pretty sure that is not the answer you were hoping for.