Q: Is there an easy formula to decide the pounds of soap a recipe will make?

A: I add the water and all the oils and all the lye.  So, for example:

10 ounces water
4 ounces lye
4 oz Coconut Oil
4 oz Palm Oil
4 oz. Olive Oil

Total: 10 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 26 ounces total

I always assume about a 15-20% shrinkage over 3 months with the water so initially, you’ll get (26 oz. / 4 oz. =) 6.5 bars of 4 ounce soap. This soap will probably shrink about 15-20% over 3 months or so. Thus, you’ll be left with 6.5 bars of 3.4 ounce soap when all is said and done.

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